As of June 10, 2025, Proven Vct PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $17.00 to $49.64 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $49.64 | -16.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $47.94 | -19.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $17.00 | -71.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $19.98 | -66.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $29.92 | -49.7% |
Is Proven Vct PLC (PVN.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $59.50, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Proven Vct PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.62 | 1.65 |
| Cost of equity | 13.7% | 16.5% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.9% | 10.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $48 | $95M | 71.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $50 | $100M | 50.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $60 | $130M | 79.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $59 | $126M | 60.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $4M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.3% - 8.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $40M - $47M |
| Net Debt | $(42)M |
| Equity Value | $82M - $89M |
| Outstanding Shares | 3M |
| Fair Value | $29 - $31 |
| Selected Fair Value | $29.92 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $170M |
| Enterprise Value | $128M |
| Trailing P/E | 19.30 |
| Forward P/E | 24.33 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 16.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 421.70% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 7.42% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.04 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $14.89 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $11.99 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $3.40 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.00 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.99 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $36.27 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Proven Vct PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $36.27, which is approximately 39.0% below the current market price of $59.50.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Proven Vct PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.