As of May 24, 2025, Publicis Groupe SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $54.69 to $319.09 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $54.69 | -43.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $83.07 | -13.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $139.51 | +45.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $272.80 | +184.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $319.09 | +232.6% |
Is Publicis Groupe SA (PUB.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $95.94, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Publicis Groupe SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.56 | 0.76 |
| Cost of equity | 6.2% | 9.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 24.4% | 25.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.7% | 8.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $83 | $22,656M | 188.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $55 | $15,438M | 199.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $(1,234) | $(10,792)M | 86.0% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $(1,234) | $(6,571)M | 133.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $5,539M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.2% - 5.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $67,778M - $97,579M |
| Net Debt | $1,531M |
| Equity Value | $66,247M - $96,048M |
| Outstanding Shares | 254M |
| Fair Value | $260 - $378 |
| Selected Fair Value | $319.09 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $24399M |
| Enterprise Value | $25930M |
| Trailing P/E | 14.70 |
| Forward P/E | 15.03 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 352.85% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 70.05% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.21 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $16.41 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $20.77 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $27.90 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $40.92 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $31.91 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $137.90 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Publicis Groupe SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $137.90, which is approximately 43.7% above the current market price of $95.94.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Publicis Groupe SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.