As of June 21, 2025, PetroShale Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.78, this represents a potential upside of -723.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1167.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -723.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.0% - 7.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $129 million in 12-2021 to $592 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 129 | 26% |
| 12-2022 | 162 | 25% |
| 12-2023 | 198 | 23% |
| 12-2024 | 243 | 23% |
| 12-2025 | 286 | 18% |
| 12-2026 | 332 | 16% |
| 12-2027 | 374 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 423 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 481 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 537 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 592 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 12-2021 to 8% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (1) | -1% |
| 12-2022 | 2 | 1% |
| 12-2023 | 5 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 10 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 15 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 22 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 26 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 30 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 36 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 41 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 47 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $119 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 135% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 149 |
| 12-2023 | 164 |
| 12-2024 | 183 |
| 12-2025 | 253 |
| 12-2026 | 331 |
| 12-2027 | 388 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 108 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 319 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2022 | 124 | 0 | 164 | (13) | (27) |
| 2023 | 188 | 1 | 268 | 17 | (98) |
| 2024 | 215 | 1 | 329 | 6 | (120) |
| 2025 | 296 | 2 | 387 | 1 | (93) |
| 2026 | 385 | 2 | 450 | 11 | (79) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1167.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -723.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.47 | -39.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.05 | 34.4% |
Is PetroShale Inc (PSH.V) a buy or a sell? PetroShale Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, PetroShale Inc (PSH.V) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -723.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.78.