What is PSAN.DE's Intrinsic value?

PSI Software AG (PSAN.DE) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, PSI Software AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $30.59 to $30.59 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $30.59 -32.0%

Is PSI Software AG (PSAN.DE) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $45.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate PSI Software AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.8% 3.3%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.47 0.55
Cost of equity 5.2% 7.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 23.3% 26.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.08 0.08
After-tax WACC 5.0% 7.0%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $32M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.0% - 5.0%
Enterprise Value $450M - $630M
Net Debt $60M
Equity Value $390M - $570M
Outstanding Shares 16M
Fair Value $25 - $36
Selected Fair Value $30.59

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $706M
Enterprise Value $766M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 15.50
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -100.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.08

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $3.06
Weighted Average 100% $30.59

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, PSI Software AG's intrinsic value is $30.59, which is approximately 32.0% below the current market price of $45.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-8% to -2% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.08)

Given these factors, we believe PSI Software AG is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.