As of April 4, 2026, Party City Holdco Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $27.92 per share. With the current market price at $0.37, this represents a potential upside of 7360.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $24.43 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $27.92 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 6427.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 7360.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 3.3% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2171 million in 12-2021 to $2693 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 2171 | 17% |
| 12-2022 | 2190 | 1% |
| 12-2023 | 2234 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 2284 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 2338 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 2384 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 2432 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 2481 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 2583 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 2638 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 2693 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2021 to 6% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (7) | 0% |
| 12-2022 | 27 | 1% |
| 12-2023 | 55 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 84 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 113 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 143 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 146 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 149 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 155 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 158 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 162 | 6% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 47 |
| 12-2023 | 55 |
| 12-2024 | 52 |
| 12-2025 | 50 |
| 12-2026 | 43 |
| 12-2027 | 44 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 19 |
| Days Inventory | 96 |
| Days Payables | 28 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 170 | 10 | 42 | 85 | 34 |
| 2023 | 219 | 20 | 42 | (45) | 201 |
| 2024 | 257 | 31 | 43 | 5 | 177 |
| 2025 | 298 | 42 | 44 | 18 | 194 |
| 2026 | 334 | 53 | 45 | (8) | 244 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 24.43 | 6427.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 27.92 | 7360.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 8.81 | 2282.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 14.35 | 3777.2% |
Is Party City Holdco Inc (PRTY) a buy or a sell? Party City Holdco Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Party City Holdco Inc (PRTY) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 7360.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.37.