What is PRGO's Intrinsic value?

Perrigo Company PLC (PRGO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of October 1, 2025, Perrigo Company PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $6.39 to $16.30 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $16.30 -26.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $6.39 -71.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $7.34 -67.0%
Earnings Power Value $15.62 -29.9%

Is Perrigo Company PLC (PRGO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $22.27, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Perrigo Company PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.84 1.4
Cost of equity 7.7% 12.7%
Cost of debt 5.7% 9.1%
Tax rate 26.2% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.24 1.24
After-tax WACC 5.8% 9.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $4,373 (FY12-2024) to $6,765 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -4% to 3%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $6 $4,077M 80.7%
10-Year Growth $16 $5,440M 65.2%
5-Year EBITDA $20 $2,763M 71.6%
10-Year EBITDA $28 $3,845M 50.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $7.34 (-67.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.7% (Low) to 7.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(3) to $(11)
  • Selected fair value: $-7.30 (-132.8% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $382M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.4% - 5.8%
Enterprise Value $4,084M - $6,609M
Net Debt $3,198M
Equity Value $887M - $3,412M
Outstanding Shares 138M
Fair Value $6 - $25
Selected Fair Value $15.62

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $3064M
Enterprise Value $3064M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.05
Current Dividend Yield 539.79%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 6.29%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.24

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $4.89
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $1.60
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $1.47
Earnings Power Value 12% $1.56
Weighted Average 100% $11.20

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Perrigo Company PLC's intrinsic value is $11.20, which is approximately 49.7% below the current market price of $22.27.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-4% to 3% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 6.29%

Given these factors, we believe Perrigo Company PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.