What is PPG's Intrinsic value?

PPG Industries Inc (PPG) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 15, 2026, PPG Industries Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $89.14 to $166.09 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $166.09 +39.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $144.09 +20.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $114.86 -3.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $89.14 -25.3%
Earnings Power Value $120.72 +1.2%

Is PPG Industries Inc (PPG) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $119.34, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate PPG Industries Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.93 0.97
Cost of equity 8.1% 10.3%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.8%
Tax rate 23.1% 24.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.27 0.27
After-tax WACC 7.0% 8.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $15,875 (FY12-2025) to $23,643 (FY12-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 10% to 14%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $144 $37,688M 76.3%
10-Year Growth $166 $42,592M 58.9%
5-Year EBITDA $156 $40,404M 77.9%
10-Year EBITDA $177 $44,920M 61.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 39.9%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $114.86 (-3.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.3% (Low) to 8.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $53 to $125
  • Selected fair value: $89.14 (-25.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $2,549M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.9% - 7.0%
Enterprise Value $28,750M - $36,205M
Net Debt $5,570M
Equity Value $23,180M - $30,635M
Outstanding Shares 223M
Fair Value $104 - $137
Selected Fair Value $120.72

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $26601M
Enterprise Value $32171M
Trailing P/E 16.78
Forward P/E 14.64
Trailing EV/EBITDA 11.40
Current Dividend Yield 237.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 4.04%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.27

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $49.83
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $36.02
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $22.97
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $13.37
Earnings Power Value 10% $12.07
Weighted Average 100% $134.26

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, PPG Industries Inc's intrinsic value is $134.26, which is approximately 12.5% above the current market price of $119.34.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (10% to 14% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.27)
  • Historical dividend growth of 4.04%

Given these factors, we believe PPG Industries Inc is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.