As of June 6, 2025, Poenina Holding AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $94.69 per share. With the current market price at $51.60, this represents a potential upside of 83.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $60.56 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $94.69 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 17.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 83.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.8% - 6.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $377 million in 12-2021 to $776 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 377 | 21% |
| 12-2022 | 382 | 1% |
| 12-2023 | 392 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 441 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 487 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 539 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 568 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 622 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 677 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 739 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 776 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2021 to 4% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 17 | 4% |
| 12-2022 | 17 | 4% |
| 12-2023 | 18 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 20 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 22 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 24 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 25 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 28 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 30 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 33 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 35 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 3 |
| 12-2023 | 3 |
| 12-2024 | 3 |
| 12-2025 | 4 |
| 12-2026 | 4 |
| 12-2027 | 4 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 88 |
| Days Inventory | 15 |
| Days Payables | 23 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 2023 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 2024 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 9 |
| 2025 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 11 |
| 2026 | 34 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 12 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 60.56 | 17.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 94.69 | 83.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 31.83 | -38.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 45.27 | -12.3% |
Is Poenina Holding AG (PNHO.SW) a buy or a sell? Poenina Holding AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Poenina Holding AG (PNHO.SW) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 83.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $51.60.