As of May 23, 2025, Premier Oil PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $19.68, this represents a potential upside of -3073.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2933.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -3073.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 15.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $949 million in 12-2020 to $2170 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 949 | 40% |
| 12-2021 | 1000 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 1125 | 12% |
| 12-2023 | 1245 | 11% |
| 12-2024 | 1367 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 1477 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 1605 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 1748 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 1905 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 2045 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 2170 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -137% in 12-2020 to -44% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (1,302) | -137% |
| 12-2021 | (503) | -50% |
| 12-2022 | (551) | -49% |
| 12-2023 | (594) | -48% |
| 12-2024 | (636) | -47% |
| 12-2025 | (670) | -45% |
| 12-2026 | (725) | -45% |
| 12-2027 | (786) | -45% |
| 12-2028 | (852) | -45% |
| 12-2029 | (910) | -45% |
| 12-2030 | (962) | -44% |
with a 5-year average of $347 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 32% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 277 |
| 12-2022 | 295 |
| 12-2023 | 319 |
| 12-2024 | 359 |
| 12-2025 | 401 |
| 12-2026 | 440 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 41 |
| Days Inventory | 14 |
| Days Payables | 54 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | (121) | (118) | 323 | 23 | (349) |
| 2022 | (135) | (129) | 363 | 11 | (380) |
| 2023 | (137) | (139) | 402 | 7 | (407) |
| 2024 | (122) | (149) | 441 | 15 | (430) |
| 2025 | (98) | (157) | 477 | 11 | (429) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2933.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -3073.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Premier Oil PLC (PMO.L) a buy or a sell? Premier Oil PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Premier Oil PLC (PMO.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -3073.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $19.68.