What is PLUS's Intrinsic value?

ePlus inc (PLUS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 8, 2025, ePlus inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $75.39 to $114.45 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $114.45 +61.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $93.25 +31.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $75.39 +6.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $86.54 +21.7%
Earnings Power Value $92.70 +30.4%

Is ePlus inc (PLUS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $71.11, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate ePlus inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.41 0.58
Cost of equity 5.8% 8.1%
Cost of debt 4.5% 7.5%
Tax rate 27.8% 28.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.02 0.02
After-tax WACC 5.7% 8.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $2,069 (FY03-2025) to $4,055 (FY03-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 5% to 5%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $93 $2,123M 84.3%
10-Year Growth $114 $2,686M 69.5%
5-Year EBITDA $62 $1,306M 74.4%
10-Year EBITDA $82 $1,825M 55.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $75.39 (6.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.1% (Low) to 5.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $40 to $133
  • Selected fair value: $86.54 (21.7% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $141M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.0% - 5.7%
Enterprise Value $1,750M - $2,468M
Net Debt $(351)M
Equity Value $2,101M - $2,818M
Outstanding Shares 27M
Fair Value $79 - $106
Selected Fair Value $92.70

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1887M
Enterprise Value $1536M
Trailing P/E 17.47
Forward P/E 16.48
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.50
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.02

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $34.34
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $23.31
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $15.08
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $12.98
Earnings Power Value 10% $9.27
Weighted Average 100% $94.98

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, ePlus inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $94.98, which is approximately 33.6% above the current market price of $71.11.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (5% to 5% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.02)

Given these factors, we believe ePlus inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.