As of August 2, 2025, Palantir Technologies Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.87 to $7.75 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $7.75 | -95.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $4.96 | -96.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $3.45 | -97.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $3.00 | -98.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $0.87 | -99.4% |
Is Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $154.27, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Palantir Technologies Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.3 | 1.68 |
| Cost of equity | 9.8% | 14.2% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 3.7% | 5.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.3% | 9.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $5 | $10,715M | 83.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $8 | $17,300M | 72.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $9 | $21,294M | 91.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $13 | $30,442M | 84.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $88M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.5% - 7.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $931M - $1,206M |
| Net Debt | $(993)M |
| Equity Value | $1,924M - $2,199M |
| Outstanding Shares | 2,360M |
| Fair Value | $1 - $1 |
| Selected Fair Value | $0.87 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $364063M |
| Enterprise Value | $363070M |
| Trailing P/E | 637.93 |
| Forward P/E | 619.88 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 36.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.93 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $2.33 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $1.24 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.69 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.45 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.09 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $4.79 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Palantir Technologies Inc's intrinsic value is $4.79, which is approximately 96.9% below the current market price of $154.27.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Palantir Technologies Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.