As of April 3, 2026, Palantir Technologies Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $30.14 per share. With the current market price at $148.46, this represents a potential upside of -79.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $20.85 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $30.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -86.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -79.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4475 million in 12-2025 to $14526 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 4475 | 56% |
| 12-2026 | 4712 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 5650 | 20% |
| 12-2028 | 6425 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 7365 | 15% |
| 12-2030 | 8506 | 15% |
| 12-2031 | 9890 | 16% |
| 12-2032 | 10866 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 11832 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 13056 | 10% |
| 12-2035 | 14526 | 11% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 37% in 12-2025 to 40% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1635 | 37% |
| 12-2026 | 1709 | 36% |
| 12-2027 | 2094 | 37% |
| 12-2028 | 2431 | 38% |
| 12-2029 | 2839 | 39% |
| 12-2030 | 3338 | 39% |
| 12-2031 | 3894 | 39% |
| 12-2032 | 4292 | 39% |
| 12-2033 | 4689 | 40% |
| 12-2034 | 5190 | 40% |
| 12-2035 | 5793 | 40% |
with a 5-year average of $23 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 29 |
| 12-2027 | 32 |
| 12-2028 | 42 |
| 12-2029 | 53 |
| 12-2030 | 63 |
| 12-2031 | 73 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 73 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 5 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1575 | 78 | 45 | (106) | 1557 |
| 2027 | 1932 | 95 | 54 | 256 | 1527 |
| 2028 | 2254 | 110 | 62 | 182 | 1899 |
| 2029 | 2644 | 129 | 71 | 155 | 2290 |
| 2030 | 3116 | 152 | 82 | 263 | 2620 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 20.85 | -86.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 30.14 | -79.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 17.50 | -88.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 25.38 | -82.9% |
Is Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) a buy or a sell? Palantir Technologies Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -79.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $148.46.