As of June 1, 2025, Haulotte Group SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $5.57 per share. With the current market price at $2.62, this represents a potential upside of 112.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $3.52 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $5.57 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 34.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 112.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 7.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $759 million in 12-2023 to $1000 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 759 | 25% |
| 12-2024 | 730 | -4% |
| 12-2025 | 779 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 776 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 828 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 851 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 890 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 908 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 939 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 961 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 1000 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2023 to 0% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2024 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2025 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2026 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2028 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2029 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2030 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2031 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2032 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2033 | 1 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $26 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 27 |
| 12-2025 | 28 |
| 12-2026 | 29 |
| 12-2027 | 33 |
| 12-2028 | 39 |
| 12-2029 | 40 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 80 |
| Days Inventory | 147 |
| Days Payables | 72 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 30 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 8 |
| 2025 | 64 | 0 | 38 | 26 | (0) |
| 2026 | 65 | 0 | 38 | (13) | 39 |
| 2027 | 71 | 0 | 40 | 26 | 5 |
| 2028 | 78 | 0 | 41 | 9 | 27 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 3.52 | 34.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 5.57 | 112.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.08 | 17.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.16 | 97.1% |
Is Haulotte Group SA (PIG.PA) a buy or a sell? Haulotte Group SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Haulotte Group SA (PIG.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 112.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $2.62.