As of June 14, 2025, Photon Control Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.09 to $2.93 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $2.93 | -18.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $2.35 | -34.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $1.71 | -52.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $1.09 | -69.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $1.38 | -61.7% |
Is Photon Control Inc (PHO.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $3.60, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Photon Control Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.4% | 3.9% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.74 | 1.06 |
| Cost of equity | 6.9% | 10.4% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 30.2% | 31.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.8% | 10.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $2 | $204M | 70.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $3 | $266M | 52.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $4 | $380M | 84.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $4 | $429M | 70.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $8M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.4% - 6.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $81M - $123M |
| Net Debt | $(43)M |
| Equity Value | $124M - $166M |
| Outstanding Shares | 105M |
| Fair Value | $1 - $2 |
| Selected Fair Value | $1.38 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $379M |
| Enterprise Value | $336M |
| Trailing P/E | 36.40 |
| Forward P/E | 26.32 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 14.40 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $0.88 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $0.59 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.34 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.16 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.14 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $2.11 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Photon Control Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.11, which is approximately 41.4% below the current market price of $3.60.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Photon Control Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.