As of October 8, 2025, Proofpoint Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $175.90, this represents a potential upside of -184.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -151.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -184.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1050 million in 12-2020 to $6218 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 1050 | 18% |
| 12-2021 | 1253 | 19% |
| 12-2022 | 1494 | 19% |
| 12-2023 | 1701 | 14% |
| 12-2024 | 2063 | 21% |
| 12-2025 | 2502 | 21% |
| 12-2026 | 3065 | 22% |
| 12-2027 | 3679 | 20% |
| 12-2028 | 4410 | 20% |
| 12-2029 | 5237 | 19% |
| 12-2030 | 6218 | 19% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -16% in 12-2020 to -5% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (164) | -16% |
| 12-2021 | (124) | -10% |
| 12-2022 | (131) | -9% |
| 12-2023 | (132) | -8% |
| 12-2024 | (139) | -7% |
| 12-2025 | (145) | -6% |
| 12-2026 | (172) | -6% |
| 12-2027 | (200) | -5% |
| 12-2028 | (232) | -5% |
| 12-2029 | (266) | -5% |
| 12-2030 | (305) | -5% |
with a 5-year average of $44 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 53 |
| 12-2022 | 64 |
| 12-2023 | 80 |
| 12-2024 | 101 |
| 12-2025 | 119 |
| 12-2026 | 143 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 100 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 22 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | (22) | (8) | 41 | 36 | (91) |
| 2022 | (33) | (17) | 99 | 66 | (181) |
| 2023 | (9) | (17) | 113 | 42 | (148) |
| 2024 | 15 | (18) | 137 | 102 | (206) |
| 2025 | 42 | (18) | 166 | 114 | (219) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -151.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -184.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Proofpoint Inc (PFPT) a buy or a sell? Proofpoint Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Proofpoint Inc (PFPT) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -184.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $175.90.