As of June 6, 2025, Petrofac Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $528.47 per share. With the current market price at $3.98, this represents a potential upside of 13194.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $528.47 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1762.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 13194.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 8.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2496 million in 12-2023 to $3332 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 2496 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 2564 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 2662 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 2715 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 2770 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 2825 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 2882 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 3014 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 3183 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 3267 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 3332 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -21% in 12-2023 to 7% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (523) | -21% |
| 12-2024 | (382) | -15% |
| 12-2025 | (268) | -10% |
| 12-2026 | (148) | -5% |
| 12-2027 | (30) | -1% |
| 12-2028 | 87 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 112 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 140 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 173 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 202 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 232 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $52 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 39 |
| 12-2025 | 38 |
| 12-2026 | 35 |
| 12-2027 | 34 |
| 12-2028 | 39 |
| 12-2029 | 39 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 241 |
| Days Inventory | 2 |
| Days Payables | 73 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | (132) | (10) | 18 | 113 | (253) |
| 2025 | (141) | (14) | 38 | 71 | (235) |
| 2026 | (15) | (8) | 39 | (6) | (40) |
| 2027 | 110 | (2) | 39 | 89 | (17) |
| 2028 | 240 | 5 | 40 | 45 | 150 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1762.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 528.47 | 13194.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Petrofac Ltd (PFC.L) a buy or a sell? Petrofac Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Petrofac Ltd (PFC.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 13194.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $3.98.