As of May 23, 2025, PetIQ Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $142.48 per share. With the current market price at $30.98, this represents a potential upside of 359.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $73.87 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $142.48 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 138.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 359.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 6.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1102 million in 12-2023 to $2832 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 1102 | 20% |
| 12-2024 | 1161 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 1274 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 1421 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 1606 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 1795 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 1967 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 2152 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 2379 | 11% |
| 12-2032 | 2642 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 2832 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2023 to 6% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 3 | 0% |
| 12-2024 | 17 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 34 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 55 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 81 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 111 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 122 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 133 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 147 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 164 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 175 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $36 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 44 |
| 12-2025 | 32 |
| 12-2026 | 38 |
| 12-2027 | 50 |
| 12-2028 | 64 |
| 12-2029 | 71 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 46 |
| Days Inventory | 63 |
| Days Payables | 48 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 51 | 2 | 26 | 10 | 13 |
| 2025 | 114 | 8 | 56 | 14 | 35 |
| 2026 | 150 | 13 | 63 | 20 | 55 |
| 2027 | 200 | 19 | 71 | 30 | 80 |
| 2028 | 257 | 26 | 79 | 27 | 125 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 73.87 | 138.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 142.48 | 359.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 42.90 | 38.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 80.39 | 159.5% |
Is PetIQ Inc (PETQ) a buy or a sell? PetIQ Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, PetIQ Inc (PETQ) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 359.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $30.98.