As of June 9, 2025, Penumbra Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $43.55 per share. With the current market price at $258.90, this represents a potential upside of -83.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $24.62 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $43.55 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -90.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -83.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 9.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1195 million in 12-2024 to $2696 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1195 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 1334 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 1459 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 1629 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 1786 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 1940 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 2069 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 2136 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 2313 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 2503 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 2696 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 12-2024 to 8% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 14 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 35 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 57 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 83 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 112 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 143 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 156 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 166 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 184 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 205 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 226 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $20 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 22 |
| 12-2026 | 25 |
| 12-2027 | 30 |
| 12-2028 | 36 |
| 12-2029 | 42 |
| 12-2030 | 45 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 69 |
| Days Inventory | 368 |
| Days Payables | 28 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 42 | 10 | 25 | 109 | (102) |
| 2026 | 88 | 21 | 37 | 9 | 22 |
| 2027 | 127 | 31 | 42 | 40 | 15 |
| 2028 | 171 | 41 | 46 | 70 | 13 |
| 2029 | 217 | 53 | 49 | 32 | 83 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 24.62 | -90.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 43.55 | -83.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 50.98 | -80.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 66.74 | -74.2% |
Is Penumbra Inc (PEN) a buy or a sell? Penumbra Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Penumbra Inc (PEN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -83.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $258.90.