As of May 29, 2025, Petards Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $7.50, this represents a potential upside of -367.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -517.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -367.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 10.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $9 million in 12-2023 to $27 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 9 | 13% |
| 12-2024 | 14 | 44% |
| 12-2025 | 17 | 23% |
| 12-2026 | 17 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 19 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 20 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 21 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 22 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 24 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 26 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 27 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -11% in 12-2023 to 0% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (1) | -11% |
| 12-2024 | (1) | -8% |
| 12-2025 | (1) | -6% |
| 12-2026 | (1) | -5% |
| 12-2027 | (1) | -3% |
| 12-2028 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2029 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2030 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2031 | (0) | 0% |
| 12-2032 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2033 | 0 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
| 12-2029 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 64 |
| Days Inventory | 114 |
| Days Payables | 54 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (1) |
| 2025 | (1) | (0) | 1 | 1 | (2) |
| 2026 | (0) | (0) | 1 | 0 | (1) |
| 2027 | (0) | (0) | 1 | 0 | (1) |
| 2028 | 0 | (0) | 1 | 0 | (1) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -517.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -367.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Petards Group PLC (PEG.L) a buy or a sell? Petards Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Petards Group PLC (PEG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -367.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $7.50.