As of May 27, 2025, Petra Diamonds Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $20.70, this represents a potential upside of -2509.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2513.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -2509.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 3.6% - 5.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $367 million in 06-2024 to $458 million by 06-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 367 | 13% |
| 06-2025 | 225 | -39% |
| 06-2026 | 242 | 8% |
| 06-2027 | 266 | 10% |
| 06-2028 | 287 | 8% |
| 06-2029 | 312 | 8% |
| 06-2030 | 335 | 7% |
| 06-2031 | 361 | 8% |
| 06-2032 | 390 | 8% |
| 06-2033 | 417 | 7% |
| 06-2034 | 458 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -28% in 06-2024 to -7% by 06-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | (104) | -28% |
| 06-2025 | (54) | -24% |
| 06-2026 | (49) | -20% |
| 06-2027 | (44) | -17% |
| 06-2028 | (37) | -13% |
| 06-2029 | (30) | -10% |
| 06-2030 | (30) | -9% |
| 06-2031 | (31) | -8% |
| 06-2032 | (31) | -8% |
| 06-2033 | (30) | -7% |
| 06-2034 | (31) | -7% |
with a 5-year average of $62 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 18% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 62 |
| 06-2026 | 67 |
| 06-2027 | 65 |
| 06-2028 | 53 |
| 06-2029 | 47 |
| 06-2030 | 51 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 24 |
| Days Inventory | 77 |
| Days Payables | 42 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 1 | (9) | 20 | (3) | (7) |
| 2026 | 15 | (16) | 43 | 2 | (14) |
| 2027 | 21 | (14) | 47 | (2) | (10) |
| 2028 | 18 | (12) | 50 | 5 | (25) |
| 2029 | 23 | (10) | 55 | 2 | (24) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2513.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2509.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Petra Diamonds Ltd (PDL.L) a buy or a sell? Petra Diamonds Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Petra Diamonds Ltd (PDL.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -2509.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $20.70.