As of June 21, 2025, PotlatchDeltic Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $16.04 to $72.64 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $72.64 | +89.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $58.11 | +51.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $44.73 | +16.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $16.04 | -58.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $18.37 | -52.2% |
Is PotlatchDeltic Corp (PCH) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $38.42, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate PotlatchDeltic Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| Cost of equity | 6.7% | 8.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.6% |
| Tax rate | 15.4% | 16.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.9% | 7.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $58 | $5,467M | 87.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $73 | $6,609M | 76.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $33 | $3,500M | 80.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $45 | $4,456M | 65.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $155M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.6% - 5.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,041M - $2,646M |
| Net Debt | $899M |
| Equity Value | $1,142M - $1,746M |
| Outstanding Shares | 79M |
| Fair Value | $15 - $22 |
| Selected Fair Value | $18.37 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3020M |
| Enterprise Value | $3919M |
| Trailing P/E | 62.93 |
| Forward P/E | 63.91 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 12.40 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 461.95% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 7.17% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.34 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $21.79 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $14.53 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $8.95 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $2.41 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.84 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $49.51 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, PotlatchDeltic Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $49.51, which is approximately 28.9% above the current market price of $38.42.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe PotlatchDeltic Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.