What is OTT1.BD's Intrinsic value?

OTT One Nyrt (OTT1.BD) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, OTT One Nyrt's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $92.74 to $92.74 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $92.74 -37.8%

Is OTT One Nyrt (OTT1.BD) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $149.20, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate OTT One Nyrt's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 6.4% 6.9%
Equity market risk premium 7.9% 8.9%
Adjusted beta 0.3 0.37
Cost of equity 8.8% 10.7%
Cost of debt 7.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 12.7% 15.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.01 0.01
After-tax WACC 8.7% 10.7%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $-949.35 (-736.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.7% (Low) to 8.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $51 to $134
  • Selected fair value: $92.74 (-37.8% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $5349M
Enterprise Value $5373M
Trailing P/E 26.45
Forward P/E 26.45
Trailing EV/EBITDA 3.80
Current Dividend Yield 62.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.01

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 100% $13.91
Weighted Average 100% $92.74

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, OTT One Nyrt's intrinsic value is $92.74, which is approximately 37.8% below the current market price of $149.20.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-269% to -210% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.01)

Given these factors, we believe OTT One Nyrt is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.