As of June 17, 2025, Ossen Innovation Co Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $28.22 per share. With the current market price at $5.05, this represents a potential upside of 458.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $25.26 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $28.22 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 400.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 458.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $139 million in 12-2020 to $199 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 139 | 0% |
| 12-2021 | 145 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 149 | 3% |
| 12-2023 | 157 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 160 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 167 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 175 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 178 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 182 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 185 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 199 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2020 to 9% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 12 | 9% |
| 12-2021 | 13 | 9% |
| 12-2022 | 13 | 9% |
| 12-2023 | 14 | 9% |
| 12-2024 | 14 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 14 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 15 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 15 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 16 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 16 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 17 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 0 |
| 12-2022 | 1 |
| 12-2023 | 1 |
| 12-2024 | 1 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 164 |
| Days Inventory | 74 |
| Days Payables | 4 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | 2 | 0 | (1) | 17 |
| 2022 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 2023 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2024 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 |
| 2025 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 25.26 | 400.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 28.22 | 458.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 18.09 | 258.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 22.51 | 345.8% |
Is Ossen Innovation Co Ltd (OSN) a buy or a sell? Ossen Innovation Co Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Ossen Innovation Co Ltd (OSN) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 458.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $5.05.