What is OSK.TO's Intrinsic value?

Osisko Mining Inc (OSK.TO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Osisko Mining Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $4.92 to $4.92 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $4.92 +0.3%

Is Osisko Mining Inc (OSK.TO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $4.90, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Osisko Mining Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.98 1.08
Cost of equity 8.2% 10.7%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 25.9% 26.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.07 0.07
After-tax WACC 7.9% 10.3%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $4.92 (0.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.7% (Low) to 8.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(0) to $(0)
  • Selected fair value: $-0.13 (-102.6% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1870M
Enterprise Value $1756M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 8.29
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.07

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 100% $0.98
Weighted Average 100% $4.92

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Osisko Mining Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $4.92, which is approximately 0.3% above the current market price of $4.90.

Key investment considerations:

  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.07)

Given these factors, we believe Osisko Mining Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.