As of September 15, 2025, Oak Street Health Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $39.00, this represents a potential upside of -266.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -306.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -266.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.1% - 8.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2161 million in 12-2022 to $14004 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 2161 | 51% |
| 12-2023 | 2279 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 3068 | 35% |
| 12-2025 | 4061 | 32% |
| 12-2026 | 5149 | 27% |
| 12-2027 | 6379 | 24% |
| 12-2028 | 7773 | 22% |
| 12-2029 | 9173 | 18% |
| 12-2030 | 10624 | 16% |
| 12-2031 | 12193 | 15% |
| 12-2032 | 14004 | 15% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -24% in 12-2022 to 1% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (510) | -24% |
| 12-2023 | (312) | -14% |
| 12-2024 | (318) | -10% |
| 12-2025 | (291) | -7% |
| 12-2026 | (214) | -4% |
| 12-2027 | (83) | -1% |
| 12-2028 | (58) | -1% |
| 12-2029 | (19) | 0% |
| 12-2030 | 34 | 0% |
| 12-2031 | 104 | 1% |
| 12-2032 | 192 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $49 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 67 |
| 12-2024 | 92 |
| 12-2025 | 129 |
| 12-2026 | 165 |
| 12-2027 | 212 |
| 12-2028 | 268 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 133 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 4 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | (358) | (115) | 116 | (69) | (289) |
| 2024 | (339) | (117) | 155 | 356 | (733) |
| 2025 | (265) | (108) | 206 | 382 | (745) |
| 2026 | (122) | (79) | 261 | 372 | (675) |
| 2027 | 106 | (31) | 323 | 497 | (683) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -306.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -266.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Oak Street Health Inc (OSH) a buy or a sell? Oak Street Health Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Oak Street Health Inc (OSH) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -266.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $39.00.