What is ORX.ST's Intrinsic value?

Orexo AB (ORX.ST) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Orexo AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.00 to $0.00 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside

Is Orexo AB (ORX.ST) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $15.62, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Orexo AB's intrinsic value, including:

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.5% 3.0%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.4 0.43
Cost of equity 5.1% 6.6%
Cost of debt 7.0% 7.9%
Tax rate 5.6% 7.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.89 0.89
After-tax WACC 5.8% 7.0%

Valuation Methods

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $542M
Enterprise Value $895M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.75
Current Dividend Yield 62.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.89

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Weighted Average 100% $0.00

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Orexo AB's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.00, which is approximately 100.0% below the current market price of $15.62.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-34% to -27% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Orexo AB is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.