As of May 24, 2025, Open Orphan PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $15.15, this represents a potential upside of -102.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -101.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -102.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 9.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $48 million in 12-2022 to $72 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 48 | 32% |
| 12-2023 | 51 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 53 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 54 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 56 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 58 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 60 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 64 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 65 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 70 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 72 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -2% in 12-2022 to -1% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (1) | -2% |
| 12-2023 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2024 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2025 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2026 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2027 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2028 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2029 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2030 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2031 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2032 | (0) | -1% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 1 |
| 12-2024 | 1 |
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 73 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | (0) | (0) | 1 | 4 | (5) |
| 2024 | (0) | (0) | 1 | (1) | 1 |
| 2025 | (0) | (0) | 1 | 1 | (2) |
| 2026 | (0) | (0) | 1 | 0 | (1) |
| 2027 | (0) | (0) | 1 | (0) | (1) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -101.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -102.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.54 | -83.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.74 | -88.5% |
Is Open Orphan PLC (ORPH.L) a buy or a sell? Open Orphan PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Open Orphan PLC (ORPH.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -102.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $15.15.