As of June 17, 2025, Fiducial Real Estate SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $184.77 to $258.72 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $258.72 | +50.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $232.41 | +35.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $184.77 | +7.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $184.86 | +7.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $239.35 | +39.2% |
Is Fiducial Real Estate SA (ORIA.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $172.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Fiducial Real Estate SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.48 | 0.6 |
| Cost of equity | 5.8% | 8.1% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 1.6% | 2.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.6% | 7.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $232 | $708M | 75.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $259 | $771M | 58.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $413 | $1,143M | 84.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $415 | $1,148M | 72.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $45M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 5.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $633M - $815M |
| Net Debt | $148M |
| Equity Value | $486M - $668M |
| Outstanding Shares | 2M |
| Fair Value | $202 - $277 |
| Selected Fair Value | $239.35 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $415M |
| Enterprise Value | $562M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.74 |
| Forward P/E | 12.06 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 19.75 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 195.77% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 186.77% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.40 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $77.62 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $58.10 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $36.95 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $27.73 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $23.93 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $224.34 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Fiducial Real Estate SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $224.34, which is approximately 30.4% above the current market price of $172.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Fiducial Real Estate SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.