As of May 22, 2025, Orapi SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $25.64 per share. With the current market price at $6.50, this represents a potential upside of 294.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $9.46 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $25.64 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 45.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 294.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.0% - 14.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $229 million in 12-2023 to $325 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 229 | 0% |
| 12-2024 | 247 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 257 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 262 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 267 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 283 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 294 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 300 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 306 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 312 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 325 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -8% in 12-2023 to 8% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (18) | -8% |
| 12-2024 | (8) | -3% |
| 12-2025 | (2) | -1% |
| 12-2026 | 4 | 1% |
| 12-2027 | 9 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 16 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 18 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 19 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 21 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 22 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 24 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $6 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 7 |
| 12-2025 | 7 |
| 12-2026 | 7 |
| 12-2027 | 7 |
| 12-2028 | 7 |
| 12-2029 | 7 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 59 |
| Days Inventory | 79 |
| Days Payables | 98 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | (1) | (2) | 3 | 3 | (6) |
| 2025 | 6 | (1) | 7 | 2 | (2) |
| 2026 | 14 | 1 | 7 | (0) | 6 |
| 2027 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2028 | 31 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 15 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 9.46 | 45.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 25.64 | 294.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.59 | -29.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 15.16 | 133.2% |
Is Orapi SA (ORAP.PA) a buy or a sell? Orapi SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Orapi SA (ORAP.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 294.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $6.50.