What is OPUS.BD's Intrinsic value?

Opus Global Nyrt (OPUS.BD) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 20, 2025, Opus Global Nyrt's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $408.25 to $693.69 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $567.25 -2.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $513.26 -12.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $673.82 +15.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $408.25 -30.1%
Earnings Power Value $693.69 +18.8%

Is Opus Global Nyrt (OPUS.BD) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $584.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Opus Global Nyrt's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 6.4% 6.9%
Equity market risk premium 7.9% 8.9%
Adjusted beta 0.82 1.06
Cost of equity 12.9% 16.8%
Cost of debt 8.1% 11.7%
Tax rate 12.9% 17.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.83 0.83
After-tax WACC 10.3% 13.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 11.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $586,076 (FY12-2024) to $966,393 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 8% to 8%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 12% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $513 $357,083M 61.7%
10-Year Growth $567 $385,994M 38.8%
5-Year EBITDA $1,077 $659,098M 79.3%
10-Year EBITDA $977 $605,596M 61.0%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 79.8%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 14.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $673.82 (15.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 16.8% (Low) to 12.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $268 to $549
  • Selected fair value: $408.25 (-30.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $52,977M
Discount Rate (WACC) 13.5% - 10.3%
Enterprise Value $391,296M - $516,135M
Net Debt $82,194M
Equity Value $309,103M - $433,941M
Outstanding Shares 536M
Fair Value $577 - $810
Selected Fair Value $693.69

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $312773M
Enterprise Value $394967M
Trailing P/E 9.66
Forward P/E 6.47
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.40
Current Dividend Yield 882.85%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 35.13%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.83

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $170.17
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $128.32
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $134.76
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $61.24
Earnings Power Value 10% $69.37
Weighted Average 100% $563.86

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Opus Global Nyrt's weighted average intrinsic value is $563.86, which is approximately 3.4% below the current market price of $584.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (8% to 8% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 35.13%

Given these factors, we believe Opus Global Nyrt is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.