As of May 23, 2025, Ocean Outdoor Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $10.20, this represents a potential upside of -155.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -198.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -155.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $124 million in 12-2021 to $169 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 124 | 44% |
| 12-2022 | 127 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 141 | 11% |
| 12-2024 | 144 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 147 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 151 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 154 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 157 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 160 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 163 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 169 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -24% in 12-2021 to -7% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (30) | -24% |
| 12-2022 | (26) | -20% |
| 12-2023 | (24) | -17% |
| 12-2024 | (21) | -14% |
| 12-2025 | (17) | -12% |
| 12-2026 | (14) | -9% |
| 12-2027 | (13) | -9% |
| 12-2028 | (13) | -8% |
| 12-2029 | (12) | -8% |
| 12-2030 | (12) | -7% |
| 12-2031 | (11) | -7% |
with a 5-year average of $7 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 9 |
| 12-2023 | 10 |
| 12-2024 | 11 |
| 12-2025 | 13 |
| 12-2026 | 15 |
| 12-2027 | 16 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 160 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 144 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | (8) | (1) | 14 | (8) | (13) |
| 2023 | (4) | (1) | 15 | 6 | (25) |
| 2024 | 0 | (1) | 16 | 5 | (19) |
| 2025 | 6 | (1) | 16 | 0 | (10) |
| 2026 | 12 | (0) | 16 | 3 | (6) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -198.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -155.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Ocean Outdoor Ltd (OOUT.L) a buy or a sell? Ocean Outdoor Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Ocean Outdoor Ltd (OOUT.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -155.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $10.20.