As of December 15, 2025, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $33.05 to $196.24 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $196.24 | +72.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $148.96 | +30.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $149.69 | +31.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $126.08 | +10.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $33.05 | -71.0% |
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $113.91, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| Cost of equity | 6.1% | 8.4% |
| Cost of debt | 4.5% | 31.7% |
| Tax rate | 23.1% | 23.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.1% | 8.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $149 | $8,990M | 86.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $196 | $11,889M | 74.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $107 | $6,420M | 81.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $145 | $8,748M | 65.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $133M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% - 6.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,578M - $2,188M |
| Net Debt | $(143)M |
| Equity Value | $1,721M - $2,331M |
| Outstanding Shares | 61M |
| Fair Value | $28 - $38 |
| Selected Fair Value | $33.05 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $6984M |
| Enterprise Value | $6841M |
| Trailing P/E | 31.23 |
| Forward P/E | 26.12 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $58.87 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $37.24 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $29.94 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $18.91 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $3.30 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $148.27 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc's intrinsic value is $148.27, which is approximately 30.2% above the current market price of $113.91.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.