As of June 1, 2025, O'Key Group SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.09 to $13.51 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $3.61 | +504.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $3.31 | +455.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $0.09 | -85.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $13.51 | +2167.5% |
Is O'Key Group SA (OKEY.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $0.60, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate O'Key Group SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 1.7% | 2.2% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.8% | 5.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.52 | 3.7 |
| Cost of equity | 9.0% | 24.2% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 14.2% | 15.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 6.62 | 6.62 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.9% | 6.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $193 | $104,333M | 77.0% |
| 10-Year Growth | $210 | $108,935M | 59.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $42 | $63,856M | 62.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $91 | $77,007M | 43.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $15,117M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 4.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $220,393M - $308,095M |
| Net Debt | $52,432M |
| Equity Value | $167,961M - $255,663M |
| Outstanding Shares | 269M |
| Fair Value | $624 - $950 |
| Selected Fair Value | $13.51 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $160M |
| Enterprise Value | $820M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 38.10 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -19.97% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 6.62 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $1.08 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $0.83 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $0.02 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $1.35 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $3.86 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, O'Key Group SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $3.86, which is approximately 547.1% above the current market price of $0.60.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe O'Key Group SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.