As of June 10, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $116.02 per share. With the current market price at $162.21, this represents a potential upside of -28.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $119.36 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $116.02 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -26.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -28.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 9.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $5815 million in 12-2024 to $7060 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 5815 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 5475 | -6% |
| 12-2026 | 5585 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 5805 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 5921 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 6238 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 6363 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 6490 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 6620 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 6922 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 7060 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 20% in 12-2024 to 22% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1186 | 20% |
| 12-2025 | 1119 | 20% |
| 12-2026 | 1163 | 21% |
| 12-2027 | 1231 | 21% |
| 12-2028 | 1276 | 22% |
| 12-2029 | 1365 | 22% |
| 12-2030 | 1396 | 22% |
| 12-2031 | 1428 | 22% |
| 12-2032 | 1461 | 22% |
| 12-2033 | 1532 | 22% |
| 12-2034 | 1567 | 22% |
with a 5-year average of $616 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 690 |
| 12-2026 | 702 |
| 12-2027 | 674 |
| 12-2028 | 652 |
| 12-2029 | 634 |
| 12-2030 | 654 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 34 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 52 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 1628 | 283 | 449 | 12 | 885 |
| 2026 | 2242 | 392 | 610 | 9 | 1230 |
| 2027 | 2303 | 415 | 634 | 11 | 1243 |
| 2028 | 2341 | 430 | 647 | 21 | 1243 |
| 2029 | 2441 | 460 | 682 | 27 | 1273 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 119.36 | -26.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 116.02 | -28.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 84.99 | -47.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 89.47 | -44.8% |
Is Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) a buy or a sell? Old Dominion Freight Line Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -28.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $162.21.