As of June 13, 2025, Orbis AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $5.76 to $26.54 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $12.98 | +75.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $5.76 | -22.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $16.57 | +123.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $26.54 | +258.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $16.16 | +118.4% |
Is Orbis AG (OBS.DE) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $7.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Orbis AG's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| Cost of equity | 5.3% | 7.2% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 28.0% | 29.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.1% | 6.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $6 | $47M | 89.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $13 | $118M | 86.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $6 | $50M | 90.0% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $8 | $65M | 74.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $9M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 5.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $128M - $170M |
| Net Debt | $(9)M |
| Equity Value | $137M - $179M |
| Outstanding Shares | 10M |
| Fair Value | $14 - $18 |
| Selected Fair Value | $16.16 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $72M |
| Enterprise Value | $63M |
| Trailing P/E | 18.08 |
| Forward P/E | 16.32 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 132.78% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -9.03% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.13 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $3.89 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $1.44 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $3.31 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.98 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.62 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $14.24 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Orbis AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $14.24, which is approximately 92.5% above the current market price of $7.40.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Orbis AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.