As of June 12, 2025, Oasis Petroleum Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $61.32 to $475.18 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $475.18 | +334.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $442.02 | +304.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $61.32 | -43.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $179.11 | +63.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $61.56 | -43.7% |
Is Oasis Petroleum Inc (OAS) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $109.30, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Oasis Petroleum Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Cost of equity | 7.5% | 9.7% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Tax rate | 18.5% | 28.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.9% | 8.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $442 | $8,659M | 68.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $475 | $9,309M | 49.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $308 | $6,024M | 54.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $371 | $7,269M | 35.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $92M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.8% - 6.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,040M - $1,342M |
| Net Debt | $(17)M |
| Equity Value | $1,057M - $1,359M |
| Outstanding Shares | 20M |
| Fair Value | $54 - $69 |
| Selected Fair Value | $61.56 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2145M |
| Enterprise Value | $2128M |
| Trailing P/E | 2.30 |
| Forward P/E | 18.44 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.45 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 815.69% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.18 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $142.55 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $110.51 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $12.26 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $26.87 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $6.16 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $298.34 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Oasis Petroleum Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $298.34, which is approximately 173.0% above the current market price of $109.30.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Oasis Petroleum Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.