What is NXT.L's Intrinsic value?

Next PLC (NXT.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 3, 2026, Next PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $8897.61 to $18604.40 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $18604.40 +43.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $15725.41 +21.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $13568.45 +4.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $13702.53 +5.8%
Earnings Power Value $8897.61 -31.3%

Is Next PLC (NXT.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $12950.00, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Next PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.51 0.59
Cost of equity 7.1% 9.1%
Cost of debt 4.1% 4.7%
Tax rate 18.0% 19.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.13 0.13
After-tax WACC 6.6% 8.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $6,118 (FY01-2025) to $11,408 (FY01-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 12% to 13%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $15,725 $19,375M 82.3%
10-Year Growth $18,604 $22,638M 67.8%
5-Year EBITDA $8,630 $11,332M 69.8%
10-Year EBITDA $11,394 $14,465M 49.7%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $13568.45 (4.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.1% (Low) to 7.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $6,909 to $20,496
  • Selected fair value: $13702.53 (5.8% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $865M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.5% - 6.6%
Enterprise Value $10,224M - $13,046M
Net Debt $1,548M
Equity Value $8,676M - $11,498M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $7,653 - $10,142
Selected Fair Value $8897.61

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $14681M
Enterprise Value $16229M
Trailing P/E 18.52
Forward P/E 16.55
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.25
Current Dividend Yield 183.07%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 5.50%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.13

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $5581.32
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $3931.35
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $2713.69
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $2055.38
Earnings Power Value 10% $889.76
Weighted Average 100% $15171.50

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Next PLC's intrinsic value is $15171.50, which is approximately 17.2% above the current market price of $12950.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (12% to 13% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.13)
  • Historical dividend growth of 5.50%

Given these factors, we believe Next PLC is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.