As of May 24, 2025, NXP Semiconductors NV has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $226.49 per share. With the current market price at $192.15, this represents a potential upside of 17.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $213.47 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $226.49 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 11.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 17.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 10.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $12614 million in 12-2024 to $15795 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 12614 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 11440 | -9% |
| 12-2026 | 11669 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 12173 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 12922 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 13180 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 13444 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 13713 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 14549 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 15305 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 15795 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 20% in 12-2024 to 30% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2554 | 20% |
| 12-2025 | 2574 | 23% |
| 12-2026 | 2825 | 24% |
| 12-2027 | 3145 | 26% |
| 12-2028 | 3538 | 27% |
| 12-2029 | 3802 | 29% |
| 12-2030 | 3916 | 29% |
| 12-2031 | 4032 | 29% |
| 12-2032 | 4317 | 30% |
| 12-2033 | 4583 | 30% |
| 12-2034 | 4772 | 30% |
with a 5-year average of $913 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 983 |
| 12-2026 | 976 |
| 12-2027 | 917 |
| 12-2028 | 914 |
| 12-2029 | 940 |
| 12-2030 | 971 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 27 |
| Days Inventory | 137 |
| Days Payables | 82 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 3191 | 360 | 657 | (625) | 2798 |
| 2026 | 4549 | 527 | 894 | 180 | 2947 |
| 2027 | 4879 | 587 | 932 | 87 | 3272 |
| 2028 | 5356 | 660 | 990 | (37) | 3742 |
| 2029 | 5701 | 710 | 1010 | 41 | 3940 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 213.47 | 11.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 226.49 | 17.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 243.15 | 26.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 250.41 | 30.3% |
Is NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) a buy or a sell? NXP Semiconductors NV is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 17.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $192.15.