As of April 1, 2026, Northwest Natural Holding Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $39.53 to $94.38 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $85.43 | +60.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $66.24 | +24.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $47.81 | -10.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $39.53 | -25.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $94.38 | +77.3% |
Is Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $53.22, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Northwest Natural Holding Co's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| Cost of equity | 5.7% | 7.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.7% | 5.1% |
| Tax rate | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.5% | 5.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $66 | $5,321M | 81.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $85 | $6,119M | 67.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $62 | $5,126M | 80.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $85 | $6,084M | 67.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $316M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 4.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $5,936M - $7,045M |
| Net Debt | $2,568M |
| Equity Value | $3,368M - $4,477M |
| Outstanding Shares | 42M |
| Fair Value | $81 - $108 |
| Selected Fair Value | $94.38 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2212M |
| Enterprise Value | $4780M |
| Trailing P/E | 19.52 |
| Forward P/E | 18.45 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 352.11% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 8.43% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.19 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $25.63 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $16.56 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $9.56 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $5.93 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $9.44 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $67.12 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Northwest Natural Holding Co's intrinsic value is $67.12, which is approximately 26.1% above the current market price of $53.22.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Northwest Natural Holding Co is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.