As of October 26, 2025, Northwest Natural Holding Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $32.89 to $122.39 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $122.39 | +156.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $61.62 | +29.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $64.63 | +35.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $32.89 | -31.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $73.32 | +53.5% |
Is Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $47.77, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Northwest Natural Holding Co's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| Cost of equity | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.1% | 4.9% |
| Tax rate | 25.5% | 25.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.6% | 5.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $62 | $4,806M | 83.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $122 | $7,293M | 71.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $88 | $3,596M | 77.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $130 | $5,313M | 60.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $271M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 4.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,699M - $5,871M |
| Net Debt | $2,283M |
| Equity Value | $2,416M - $3,588M |
| Outstanding Shares | 41M |
| Fair Value | $59 - $88 |
| Selected Fair Value | $73.32 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1956M |
| Enterprise Value | $1956M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 17.55 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 400.82% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.84% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.03 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $36.72 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $15.41 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $12.93 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $4.93 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $7.33 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $77.31 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Northwest Natural Holding Co's intrinsic value is $77.31, which is approximately 61.8% above the current market price of $47.77.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Northwest Natural Holding Co is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.