As of April 3, 2026, Northwest Natural Holding Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $85.43 per share. With the current market price at $54.66, this represents a potential upside of 56.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $66.24 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $85.43 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 21.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 56.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.5% - 5.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1289 million in 12-2025 to $2090 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1289 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 1347 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 1418 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 1483 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 1583 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 1642 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 1674 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 1757 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 1869 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 2046 | 9% |
| 12-2035 | 2090 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2025 to 9% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 113 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 120 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 126 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 132 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 141 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 146 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 149 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 156 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 166 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 182 | 9% |
| 12-2035 | 186 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $364 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 33% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 394 |
| 12-2027 | 420 |
| 12-2028 | 452 |
| 12-2029 | 477 |
| 12-2030 | 492 |
| 12-2031 | 513 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 36 |
| Days Inventory | 88 |
| Days Payables | 116 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 684 | 42 | 443 | 28 | 171 |
| 2027 | 725 | 44 | 467 | 3 | 211 |
| 2028 | 771 | 46 | 488 | (3) | 239 |
| 2029 | 817 | 49 | 521 | 13 | 235 |
| 2030 | 845 | 51 | 540 | 3 | 251 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 66.24 | 21.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 85.43 | 56.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 63.09 | 15.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 86.13 | 57.6% |
Is Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) a buy or a sell? Northwest Natural Holding Co is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 56.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $54.66.