What is NWG.ST's DCF valuation?

Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB (NWG.ST) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 2, 2026, Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $174.77 per share. With the current market price at $182.40, this represents a potential upside of -4.2%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $136.45
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $174.77
Potential Upside (5-year) -25.2%
Potential Upside (10-year) -4.2%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.5% - 7.5%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $4091 million in 12-2024 to $7751 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.6%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 4091 8%
12-2025 4468 9%
12-2026 4605 3%
12-2027 4816 5%
12-2028 5227 9%
12-2029 5553 6%
12-2030 5936 7%
12-2031 6529 10%
12-2032 6849 5%
12-2033 7275 6%
12-2034 7751 7%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2024 to 4% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 169 4%
12-2025 197 4%
12-2026 203 4%
12-2027 213 4%
12-2028 231 4%
12-2029 245 4%
12-2030 262 4%
12-2031 288 4%
12-2032 302 4%
12-2033 321 4%
12-2034 342 4%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $74 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 79
12-2026 81
12-2027 78
12-2028 86
12-2029 92
12-2030 97

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 34
Days Inventory 79
Days Payables 26

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2025 331 53 83 56 140
2026 341 54 85 (3) 204
2027 350 57 89 70 135
2028 381 62 97 73 149
2029 405 65 103 60 176

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.5% - 7.5%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 2.0% - 4.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 6.8x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 136.45 -25.2%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 174.77 -4.2%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 77.69 -57.4%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 105.63 -42.1%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $3,983M
  • 10-Year Model: $4,905M

Investment Conclusion

Is Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB (NWG.ST) a buy or a sell? Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB (NWG.ST) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -4.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (6.6% CAGR)

Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $182.40.