As of April 2, 2026, Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $174.77 per share. With the current market price at $182.40, this represents a potential upside of -4.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $136.45 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $174.77 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -25.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -4.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 7.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4091 million in 12-2024 to $7751 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4091 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 4468 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 4605 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 4816 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 5227 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 5553 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 5936 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 6529 | 10% |
| 12-2032 | 6849 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 7275 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 7751 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2024 to 4% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 169 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 197 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 203 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 213 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 231 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 245 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 262 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 288 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 302 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 321 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 342 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $74 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 79 |
| 12-2026 | 81 |
| 12-2027 | 78 |
| 12-2028 | 86 |
| 12-2029 | 92 |
| 12-2030 | 97 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 34 |
| Days Inventory | 79 |
| Days Payables | 26 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 331 | 53 | 83 | 56 | 140 |
| 2026 | 341 | 54 | 85 | (3) | 204 |
| 2027 | 350 | 57 | 89 | 70 | 135 |
| 2028 | 381 | 62 | 97 | 73 | 149 |
| 2029 | 405 | 65 | 103 | 60 | 176 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 136.45 | -25.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 174.77 | -4.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 77.69 | -57.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 105.63 | -42.1% |
Is Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB (NWG.ST) a buy or a sell? Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Nordic Waterproofing Holding AB (NWG.ST) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -4.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $182.40.