As of May 27, 2025, Nevro Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $5.84, this represents a potential upside of -1053.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1024.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1053.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $409 million in 12-2024 to $635 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 409 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 430 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 439 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 450 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 467 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 483 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 513 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 547 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 583 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 622 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 635 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -28% in 12-2024 to -18% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (113) | -28% |
| 12-2025 | (110) | -26% |
| 12-2026 | (105) | -24% |
| 12-2027 | (101) | -22% |
| 12-2028 | (98) | -21% |
| 12-2029 | (95) | -20% |
| 12-2030 | (100) | -19% |
| 12-2031 | (105) | -19% |
| 12-2032 | (110) | -19% |
| 12-2033 | (116) | -19% |
| 12-2034 | (117) | -18% |
with a 5-year average of $9 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 10 |
| 12-2026 | 9 |
| 12-2027 | 10 |
| 12-2028 | 10 |
| 12-2029 | 10 |
| 12-2030 | 10 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 68 |
| Days Inventory | 292 |
| Days Payables | 67 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (87) | (1) | 10 | 14 | (109) |
| 2026 | (83) | (1) | 10 | 0 | (91) |
| 2027 | (78) | (1) | 10 | (4) | (82) |
| 2028 | (74) | (1) | 10 | 4 | (88) |
| 2029 | (70) | (1) | 11 | 1 | (81) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1024.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1053.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Nevro Corp (NVRO) a buy or a sell? Nevro Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Nevro Corp (NVRO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1053.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $5.84.