As of September 28, 2025, NVIDIA Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $15.93 to $277.07 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $277.07 | +55.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $161.11 | -9.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $143.13 | -19.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $64.23 | -64.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $15.93 | -91.1% |
Is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $178.19, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate NVIDIA Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.96 | 1.07 |
| Cost of equity | 8.3% | 10.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.3% | 10.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $161 | $3,927,801M | 81.0% |
| 10-Year Growth | $277 | $6,757,458M | 68.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $210 | $5,119,114M | 85.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $336 | $8,192,521M | 74.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $36,223M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.8% - 8.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $334,345M - $436,880M |
| Net Debt | $(3,173)M |
| Equity Value | $337,518M - $440,053M |
| Outstanding Shares | 24,400M |
| Fair Value | $14 - $18 |
| Selected Fair Value | $15.93 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $4347836M |
| Enterprise Value | $4344663M |
| Trailing P/E | 50.21 |
| Forward P/E | 38.18 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 21.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 2.27% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 20.54% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $83.12 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $40.28 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $28.63 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $9.63 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.59 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $163.25 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, NVIDIA Corp's intrinsic value is $163.25, which is approximately 8.4% below the current market price of $178.19.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe NVIDIA Corp is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.