As of May 24, 2025, NVIDIA Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $181.25 per share. With the current market price at $131.29, this represents a potential upside of 38.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $109.86 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $181.25 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -16.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 38.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% - 10.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $130497 million in 01-2025 to $687692 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 18.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 130497 | 114% |
| 01-2026 | 136954 | 5% |
| 01-2027 | 178389 | 30% |
| 01-2028 | 236892 | 33% |
| 01-2029 | 306223 | 29% |
| 01-2030 | 378734 | 24% |
| 01-2031 | 450224 | 19% |
| 01-2032 | 511413 | 14% |
| 01-2033 | 570251 | 12% |
| 01-2034 | 627252 | 10% |
| 01-2035 | 687692 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 56% in 01-2025 to 68% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 72880 | 56% |
| 01-2026 | 85846 | 63% |
| 01-2027 | 113805 | 64% |
| 01-2028 | 153634 | 65% |
| 01-2029 | 201677 | 66% |
| 01-2030 | 253050 | 67% |
| 01-2031 | 301633 | 67% |
| 01-2032 | 343545 | 67% |
| 01-2033 | 384085 | 67% |
| 01-2034 | 423581 | 68% |
| 01-2035 | 465595 | 68% |
with a 5-year average of $1648 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 2596 |
| 01-2027 | 3930 |
| 01-2028 | 5593 |
| 01-2029 | 8003 |
| 01-2030 | 10601 |
| 01-2031 | 13285 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 59 |
| Days Inventory | 136 |
| Days Payables | 58 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 90846 | 4019 | 5867 | 2042 | 78918 |
| 2027 | 120959 | 5328 | 7643 | 7460 | 100529 |
| 2028 | 163627 | 7193 | 10149 | 11782 | 134503 |
| 2029 | 215511 | 9443 | 13119 | 13662 | 179287 |
| 2030 | 271032 | 11848 | 16226 | 13734 | 229224 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 109.86 | -16.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 181.25 | 38.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 117.85 | -10.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 186.66 | 42.2% |
Is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) a buy or a sell? NVIDIA Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 38.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $131.29.