As of October 14, 2026, NVIDIA Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $317.14 per share. With the current market price at $228.52, this represents a potential upside of 38.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $186.79 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $317.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -18.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 38.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.1% - 12.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $215938 million in 01-2026 to $1592000 million by 01-2036, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 215938 | 65% |
| 01-2027 | 298581 | 38% |
| 01-2028 | 389889 | 31% |
| 01-2029 | 523366 | 34% |
| 01-2030 | 666571 | 27% |
| 01-2031 | 838720 | 26% |
| 01-2032 | 984333 | 17% |
| 01-2033 | 1151486 | 17% |
| 01-2034 | 1302273 | 13% |
| 01-2035 | 1449272 | 11% |
| 01-2036 | 1592000 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 56% in 01-2026 to 64% by 01-2036, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 120067 | 56% |
| 01-2027 | 175643 | 59% |
| 01-2028 | 233731 | 60% |
| 01-2029 | 319328 | 61% |
| 01-2030 | 413455 | 62% |
| 01-2031 | 528305 | 63% |
| 01-2032 | 621825 | 63% |
| 01-2033 | 729503 | 63% |
| 01-2034 | 827365 | 64% |
| 01-2035 | 923327 | 64% |
| 01-2036 | 1017055 | 64% |
with a 5-year average of $2631 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2027 | 4521 |
| 01-2028 | 6876 |
| 01-2029 | 10316 |
| 01-2030 | 14323 |
| 01-2031 | 18970 |
| 01-2032 | 23758 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 63 |
| Days Inventory | 121 |
| Days Payables | 64 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2027 | 98779 | 11975 | 5212 | 6775 | 74817 |
| 2028 | 263918 | 31871 | 13610 | 19873 | 198563 |
| 2029 | 361697 | 43543 | 18270 | 29129 | 270755 |
| 2030 | 469521 | 56378 | 23269 | 27572 | 362302 |
| 2031 | 600899 | 72038 | 29279 | 35536 | 464046 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 186.79 | -18.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 317.14 | 38.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 297.02 | 30.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 453.28 | 98.4% |
Is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) a buy or a sell? NVIDIA Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 38.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $228.52.