As of July 16, 2025, NVIDIA Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $247.56 per share. With the current market price at $170.70, this represents a potential upside of 45.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $146.49 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $247.56 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -14.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 45.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.6% - 11.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $130497 million in 01-2025 to $982435 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 130497 | 114% |
| 01-2026 | 181519 | 39% |
| 01-2027 | 243861 | 34% |
| 01-2028 | 331229 | 36% |
| 01-2029 | 416853 | 26% |
| 01-2030 | 529509 | 27% |
| 01-2031 | 613753 | 16% |
| 01-2032 | 720228 | 17% |
| 01-2033 | 811350 | 13% |
| 01-2034 | 897461 | 11% |
| 01-2035 | 982435 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 56% in 01-2025 to 68% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 72880 | 56% |
| 01-2026 | 113780 | 63% |
| 01-2027 | 155574 | 64% |
| 01-2028 | 214817 | 65% |
| 01-2029 | 274539 | 66% |
| 01-2030 | 353792 | 67% |
| 01-2031 | 411194 | 67% |
| 01-2032 | 483822 | 67% |
| 01-2033 | 546478 | 67% |
| 01-2034 | 606058 | 68% |
| 01-2035 | 665153 | 68% |
with a 5-year average of $1648 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 2978 |
| 01-2027 | 4872 |
| 01-2028 | 7344 |
| 01-2029 | 10702 |
| 01-2030 | 14592 |
| 01-2031 | 18295 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 59 |
| Days Inventory | 136 |
| Days Payables | 58 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2026 | 89959 | 3995 | 5832 | 8579 | 71551 |
| 2027 | 164854 | 7284 | 10447 | 11399 | 135724 |
| 2028 | 228313 | 10058 | 14190 | 17608 | 186456 |
| 2029 | 293179 | 12854 | 17859 | 16820 | 245646 |
| 2030 | 378704 | 16565 | 22685 | 21477 | 317977 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 146.49 | -14.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 247.56 | 45.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 175.55 | 2.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 279.82 | 63.9% |
Is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) a buy or a sell? NVIDIA Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 45.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $170.70.