As of September 4, 2025, NVIDIA Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $273.83 per share. With the current market price at $170.62, this represents a potential upside of 60.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $159.36 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $273.83 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -6.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 60.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% - 10.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $130497 million in 01-2025 to $1009987 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 130497 | 114% |
| 01-2026 | 181684 | 39% |
| 01-2027 | 241222 | 33% |
| 01-2028 | 335840 | 39% |
| 01-2029 | 433703 | 29% |
| 01-2030 | 546193 | 26% |
| 01-2031 | 644383 | 18% |
| 01-2032 | 742830 | 15% |
| 01-2033 | 848087 | 14% |
| 01-2034 | 929543 | 10% |
| 01-2035 | 1009987 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 56% in 01-2025 to 68% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 72880 | 56% |
| 01-2026 | 113883 | 63% |
| 01-2027 | 153890 | 64% |
| 01-2028 | 217806 | 65% |
| 01-2029 | 285635 | 66% |
| 01-2030 | 364937 | 67% |
| 01-2031 | 431711 | 67% |
| 01-2032 | 499001 | 67% |
| 01-2033 | 571217 | 67% |
| 01-2034 | 627717 | 68% |
| 01-2035 | 683801 | 68% |
with a 5-year average of $1648 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 2980 |
| 01-2027 | 4851 |
| 01-2028 | 7362 |
| 01-2029 | 10865 |
| 01-2030 | 14897 |
| 01-2031 | 18862 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 59 |
| Days Inventory | 136 |
| Days Payables | 58 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2026 | 60026 | 2666 | 3892 | 5736 | 47732 |
| 2027 | 163101 | 7205 | 10334 | 10827 | 134735 |
| 2028 | 231406 | 10198 | 14388 | 19082 | 187738 |
| 2029 | 304758 | 13373 | 18581 | 19283 | 253521 |
| 2030 | 390479 | 17086 | 23400 | 21404 | 328588 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 159.36 | -6.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 273.83 | 60.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 188.10 | 10.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 304.76 | 78.6% |
Is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) a buy or a sell? NVIDIA Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 60.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $170.62.