As of May 1, 2026, NVIDIA Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $268.26 per share. With the current market price at $199.57, this represents a potential upside of 34.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $155.89 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $268.26 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -21.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 34.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% - 11.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $215938 million in 01-2026 to $1252831 million by 01-2036, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 215938 | 65% |
| 01-2027 | 226439 | 5% |
| 01-2028 | 298411 | 32% |
| 01-2029 | 410770 | 38% |
| 01-2030 | 516286 | 26% |
| 01-2031 | 654506 | 27% |
| 01-2032 | 769418 | 18% |
| 01-2033 | 895488 | 16% |
| 01-2034 | 1031291 | 15% |
| 01-2035 | 1148882 | 11% |
| 01-2036 | 1252831 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 56% in 01-2026 to 64% by 01-2036, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 120067 | 56% |
| 01-2027 | 133388 | 59% |
| 01-2028 | 179363 | 60% |
| 01-2029 | 251577 | 61% |
| 01-2030 | 321788 | 62% |
| 01-2031 | 414666 | 63% |
| 01-2032 | 488973 | 64% |
| 01-2033 | 570823 | 64% |
| 01-2034 | 659364 | 64% |
| 01-2035 | 736725 | 64% |
| 01-2036 | 805733 | 64% |
with a 5-year average of $2631 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2027 | 4017 |
| 01-2028 | 5734 |
| 01-2029 | 8388 |
| 01-2030 | 11345 |
| 01-2031 | 14706 |
| 01-2032 | 18497 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 63 |
| Days Inventory | 120 |
| Days Payables | 64 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 150622 | 18188 | 7905 | (1,291) | 125820 |
| 2028 | 203002 | 24457 | 10417 | 15595 | 152533 |
| 2029 | 285251 | 34304 | 14339 | 24513 | 212094 |
| 2030 | 365676 | 43878 | 18023 | 20484 | 283291 |
| 2031 | 471546 | 56543 | 22848 | 28607 | 363548 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 155.89 | -21.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 268.26 | 34.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 247.55 | 24.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 386.25 | 93.5% |
Is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) a buy or a sell? NVIDIA Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 34.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $199.57.