As of May 29, 2025, Nuvista Energy Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $16.86 to $35.41 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $17.62 | +24.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $16.86 | +18.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $27.59 | +94.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $35.41 | +149.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $24.20 | +70.5% |
Is Nuvista Energy Ltd (NVA.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $14.19, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Nuvista Energy Ltd's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.86 | 1.21 |
| Cost of equity | 7.6% | 11.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.9% |
| Tax rate | 22.7% | 22.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.1% | 10.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $17 | $3,662M | 80.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $18 | $3,815M | 61.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $14 | $3,113M | 77.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $15 | $3,329M | 55.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $443M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.9% - 7.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,065M - $6,202M |
| Net Debt | $279M |
| Equity Value | $3,787M - $5,924M |
| Outstanding Shares | 201M |
| Fair Value | $19 - $30 |
| Selected Fair Value | $24.20 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2847M |
| Enterprise Value | $3126M |
| Trailing P/E | 7.45 |
| Forward P/E | 6.64 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.45 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.10 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $5.29 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $4.21 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $5.52 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $5.31 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.42 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $22.75 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Nuvista Energy Ltd's weighted average intrinsic value is $22.75, which is approximately 60.3% above the current market price of $14.19.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Nuvista Energy Ltd is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.