As of June 22, 2025, Numis Corporation PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $73.72 to $615.35 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $78.88 | -77.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $79.78 | -76.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $615.35 | +79.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $73.72 | -78.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $552.92 | +61.2% |
Is Numis Corporation PLC (NUM.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $343.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Numis Corporation PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.37 | 0.4 |
| Cost of equity | 6.2% | 7.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.7% | 14.3% |
| Tax rate | 19.5% | 23.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.0% | 8.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $80 | $30M | 478.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $79 | $29M | 429.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $22 | $(33)M | 242.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $25 | $(30)M | 217.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $38M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 6.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $470M - $637M |
| Net Debt | $(58)M |
| Equity Value | $528M - $695M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $477 - $629 |
| Selected Fair Value | $552.92 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $379M |
| Enterprise Value | $321M |
| Trailing P/E | 208.46 |
| Forward P/E | 24.62 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 391.43% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 5.11% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.11 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $23.66 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $19.94 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $123.07 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $11.06 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $55.29 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $233.03 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Numis Corporation PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $233.03, which is approximately 32.1% below the current market price of $343.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Numis Corporation PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.