As of June 1, 2025, Nomad Royalty Company Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $9.67, this represents a potential upside of -258.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -329.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -258.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $27 million in 12-2021 to $254 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 27 | 1% |
| 12-2022 | 60 | 119% |
| 12-2023 | 65 | 9% |
| 12-2024 | 88 | 36% |
| 12-2025 | 112 | 27% |
| 12-2026 | 141 | 25% |
| 12-2027 | 163 | 16% |
| 12-2028 | 188 | 16% |
| 12-2029 | 213 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 235 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 254 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -5% in 12-2021 to 10% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (1) | -5% |
| 12-2022 | (1) | -1% |
| 12-2023 | 1 | 1% |
| 12-2024 | 3 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 7 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 11 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 13 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 16 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 19 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 22 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 25 | 10% |
with a 5-year average of $15 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 140% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 32 |
| 12-2023 | 50 |
| 12-2024 | 75 |
| 12-2025 | 103 |
| 12-2026 | 131 |
| 12-2027 | 160 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 18 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2022 | 26 | (0) | 63 | 0 | (37) |
| 2023 | 55 | 0 | 91 | 1 | (38) |
| 2024 | 85 | 1 | 124 | 2 | (42) |
| 2025 | 119 | 2 | 158 | 1 | (42) |
| 2026 | 154 | 4 | 197 | 2 | (49) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -329.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -258.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.82 | -19.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 14.58 | 50.8% |
Is Nomad Royalty Company Ltd (NSR.TO) a buy or a sell? Nomad Royalty Company Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Nomad Royalty Company Ltd (NSR.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -258.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $9.67.