As of May 27, 2025, National Presto Industries Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $59.18 to $98.46 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $98.46 | +15.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $81.75 | -3.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $70.03 | -17.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $59.18 | -30.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $71.18 | -16.2% |
Is National Presto Industries Inc (NPK) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $84.95, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate National Presto Industries Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.83 | 0.93 |
| Cost of equity | 7.7% | 10.1% |
| Cost of debt | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 19.5% | 20.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.6% | 6.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $82 | $566M | 69.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $98 | $685M | 57.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $99 | $689M | 75.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $116 | $809M | 63.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $30M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 5.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $443M - $538M |
| Net Debt | $(18)M |
| Equity Value | $461M - $555M |
| Outstanding Shares | 7M |
| Fair Value | $65 - $78 |
| Selected Fair Value | $71.18 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $607M |
| Enterprise Value | $589M |
| Trailing P/E | 14.63 |
| Forward P/E | 14.24 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 10.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 528.06% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -6.65% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.95 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $29.54 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $20.44 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $14.01 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $8.88 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $7.12 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $79.98 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, National Presto Industries Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $79.98, which is approximately 5.9% below the current market price of $84.95.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe National Presto Industries Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.