As of May 23, 2025, Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $47.64 to $4154.01 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $4154.01 | +122076.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $3600.37 | +105793.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $47.64 | +1301.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $162.01 | +4665.0% |
Is Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC (NOG.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $3.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 30.3 | 39.32 |
| Cost of equity | 185.2% | 279.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 15.8% |
| Tax rate | 19.5% | 32.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 60.65 | 60.65 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.2% | 15.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $4,782 | $8,264M | 65.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $5,517 | $9,477M | 43.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $2,064 | $3,781M | 25.0% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $3,458 | $6,080M | 11.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $64M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 15.0% - 6.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $427M - $1,035M |
| Net Debt | $376M |
| Equity Value | $51M - $659M |
| Outstanding Shares | 2M |
| Fair Value | $31 - $400 |
| Selected Fair Value | $162.01 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $6M |
| Enterprise Value | $289M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 0.01 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 1.30 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 60.65 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $1246.20 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $900.09 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $9.53 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $16.20 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $2555.32 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $2555.32, which is approximately 75056.6% above the current market price of $3.40.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.