As of May 23, 2025, Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.40, this represents a potential upside of 122076.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 105793.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 122076.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 15.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $120 million in 12-2023 to $184 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 120 | 40% |
| 12-2024 | 133 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 135 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 138 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 141 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 144 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 152 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 160 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 170 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 176 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 184 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 695% in 12-2023 to 515% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 832 | 695% |
| 12-2024 | 684 | 515% |
| 12-2025 | 698 | 515% |
| 12-2026 | 712 | 515% |
| 12-2027 | 726 | 515% |
| 12-2028 | 740 | 515% |
| 12-2029 | 784 | 515% |
| 12-2030 | 822 | 515% |
| 12-2031 | 877 | 515% |
| 12-2032 | 908 | 515% |
| 12-2033 | 948 | 515% |
with a 5-year average of $37 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 15% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 18 |
| 12-2025 | 16 |
| 12-2026 | 19 |
| 12-2027 | 20 |
| 12-2028 | 21 |
| 12-2029 | 22 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 27 |
| Days Inventory | 131 |
| Days Payables | 42 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2024 | 262 | 61 | 5 | (1) | 197 |
| 2025 | 1069 | 249 | 21 | 2 | 797 |
| 2026 | 1093 | 254 | 21 | 2 | 815 |
| 2027 | 1115 | 259 | 22 | (1) | 835 |
| 2028 | 1138 | 264 | 22 | 1 | 851 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 105793.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 122076.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1554.17 | 45610.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2603.40 | 76470.6% |
Is Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC (NOG.L) a buy or a sell? Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC (NOG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 122076.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.40.